Expert Intel: How Much Does Harrison Barnes Have Left in the Tank?
Gaining an inside perspective on what the veteran forward brings to the table for the good guys.
The San Antonio Spurs welcomed Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes to the organization in an introductory press conference on Tuesday, giving fans their first glimpse of their prized offseason acquisitions. While the well-traveled veterans handled every question with class and diplomacy, their carefully worded answers left us wondering how much they can contribute to the continuation of the rebuild this season.
We already chatted with a Golden State Warriors insider to gather intel on Paul, and it only felt fitting to reach out to one of the brightest writers covering Sacramento Kings basketball for a closer look at Barnes. And after sitting down with our friend Mat Issa, here is everything he had to say about what the 32-year-old combo forward still brings on both ends ahead of his opening act with the Silver and Black.
Noah: What can Barnes bring to the table on offense for the Spurs at this stage in his career?
Mat: At a glance, Harrison Barnes’ 12.2 PPG may not seem like much. And while it’s true his days as an 18-19 PPG scorer are well behind him, Barnes is still a positive spacer at the power forward position. Last year, Barnes was in the 63rd percentile in 3-point efficiency and the 67th percentile in 3-point frequency among all forwards (per Cleaning the Glass). He’s also a sound closeout attacker, placing in the 78th percentile in true shooting on drives (per Thinking Basketball). Barnes won’t take precious touches from Victor Wembanyama or Devin Vassell (or the newly-acquired Chris Paul), and he won’t hurt their floor spacing, either.
Noah: Father Time has caught up to Barnes a bit, so what value does he provide as a defender?
Mat: To be honest, Barnes doesn’t offer much as a defensive player. Despite touting great size (6’8 with a 6’11 wingspan), Barnes was only in the 24th percentile in steal rate and the 7th percentile in block rate. So, don’t expect much defensive playmaking or secondary rim protection from him. Overall, he was just in the 49th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (DEF EPM, per Dunks & Threes). As you alluded to in your question, Barnes isn’t getting any younger (next year will be his age-32 season), meaning that improvement on this side of the ball is unlikely. The good news is that Wembanyama is such a dominant defensive anchor that the Spurs can profit off of Barnes' offensive strengths without being vastly hindered by his defensive shortcomings.
Noah: Should the one-time champion start for Coach Popovich ahead of someone like Keldon Johnson?
Mat: At least at the beginning of the season, yes. I still think Keldon Johnson has the higher ceiling between the two – my spicy take is that he could be next season’s PJ Washington (a young forward who excels after getting traded to a playoff team) if traded to the right team – but as long as you’re in the playoff hunt, you are better off going with the safer play in Barnes. Barnes is the more reliable shooter (six straight seasons of shooting 37.4% or higher from three, compared to Johnson, who has only reached that percentage once in the last four years), has more repetitions under his belt, and his years of big games and experience make him a more consistent defender. If the San Antonio Spurs fall out of the race, then you go to Johnson to see if you can’t capture lighting in a bottle (granted, he’s still on the team at that point).
Noah: How can San Antonio maximize Barnes without a premier advantage-creating guard on the roster?
Mat: As we established earlier, at this point in time, Barnes is pretty much exclusively a spot-up spacer and closeout attacker. As a result, the Spurs' best bet is to have him flanking Paul/Wembanyama or Vassell/Wembanyama two-man actions. If those actions can become prolific enough to draw the attention of a third defender, then you can kick the ball to Barnes so that he can spray it from downtown or put the ball on the floor and pierce the defense with his drive game. Given his lack of on-ball creation, I can't see a world where you ever ask Barnes to carry any lineups by himself.
Noah: As someone who covers the Kings, what under-appreciated intangibles does he offer this rebuilding team?
Mat: If you’ve taken a second to scroll through Kings’ Twitter ever since the DeMar DeRozan trade, you were likely to be flooded by admiration for Barnes. Despite being the weakest link in the team’s starting five last season (and missing the shot that could have put them up 3-1 against the Golden State Warriors in the 2023 NBA Playoffs), Kings’ fans have nothing but love for Barnes. This is a testament to Barnes' class and dedication to his craft. In Barnes, you have a guy you know you can count on (he’s missed a total of five games in the last three years), who has a wealth of knowledge from his playoff battles (71 career playoff games) that he can bestow on younger players like Wembanyama, Vassell, Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, and 2024 rookies Stephon Castle, Juan Nunez, and Harrison Ingram.
Very good work, Noah.