Vic-and-Roll Mailbag: Third Quarters, Best Lineups, Nikola Topic, and More
The Spurs have left everyone wondering what is going wrong this season...
We asked readers to submit their burning San Antonio Spurs questions on Substack, Threads, and Twitter over the weekend, and y’all delivered with some terrific queries!
1. After the amount of starting lineup experimenting the Spurs have done thus far, what combo have you liked for the team and why? - Emmanuel Cortez (Substack)
The Spurs are just in year two of their full-scale rebuild, prompting Gregg Popovich to test numerous unorthodox lineups to see what sticks. Leaving no stone unturned is the right approach for a franchise learning what pieces fit best around a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama. But with a pitiful 3-18 record, it is clear there haven't been many winning combinations in the 2-1-0.
Despite a disappointing start to their season, San Antonio has trotted out a couple of effective lineups, the first and most intriguing of which is home to Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson, and Victor Wembanyama. That group has the best Net Rating (+41.3) on the roster, and that isn't all that surprising considering how their skills mesh on both ends of the court.
The Silver and Black are most dangerous when Jones and Wemby share the floor. Having a genuine point guard to collapse defenses with dribble penetration and a towering rim protector who erases mistakes gives this team the bones they need to function competently. Adding multi-level scorers like Keldon and Vassell provides firepower. Top it off with a connector like Sochan, and we're cooking with grease.
While this may be a case of small sample size theatre since this troop has only logged 21 minutes together, you have to wonder why Popovich has refrained from giving this quintet extended run. With that said, there are still 61 games left on the schedule, and with all the trial and error, we will likely see more of this Jones-Devin-Keldon-Sochan-Wemby medley as the season unfolds.
It is worth noting how solid the Spurs have looked when they surround Wembanyama with a natural ballhandler and two reliable sharpshooters. The lineup of Victor, Jones, Vassell, Doug McDermott, and Cedi Osman has posted a +40.7 Net Rating this season. San Antonio should explore what they have there. At the very least, the spacing allows the rookie more room to go one-on-one without worrying about help defenders.
2. What happened in the third quarter? -@buscarroba (Twitter)
As Bill Land and Sean Elliott often express on the local broadcast, the third quarter is an immense bugaboo for the young Spurs. And like clockwork, San Antonio fell apart after halftime and relinquished an 11-point lead over the Bulls on Friday night. While we could discuss why the last contest was such a disaster, it makes more sense to dive into the bigger picture of this unfortunate trend.
Here are some bothersome third-quarter statistics. The Spurs are last in points, field goal and three-point percentage, free throw attempts, and turnovers in the NBA. San Antonio also ranks 25th in turnovers forced, 27th in opponent three-point percentage, 28th in opponent field goal percentage, and 29th in points allowed. Combine the poor performance on both ends, and you have a perfect storm for a complete collapse.
Opponents have outscored San Antonio by 146 points in the third frame, the WORST margin in the NBA by over 60 POINTS. Even fellow bottom-dwellers like the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards look respectable when held up to the good guys.
As for why the Spurs spiral, that is a tough question to answer. Having watched every game, it feels safe to say it isn’t as simple as poor effort. The players are putting their best foot forward from the second the quarter starts, but no one can stop the bleeding once an opponent goes on a run. Wembanyama is an unprecedented prospect, but the coaching staff cannot count on him to carry the offense for long stretches yet.
Though no one deserves to bear the brunt of the blame, it is impossible to ignore how Popovich lets his squad sink or swim in the third period. The long-time playcaller has talked about how San Antonio wants to gather tape and data on specific lineups, and he usually sticks to a somewhat strict eight or nine-man rotation each game. Perhaps that might be why it feels like other teams make adjustments while the Spurs stagnate.
3. Always see you critiquing Keldon on Twitter. Do you have anything positive to say about him this season? Better FG% and more assists. Doesn’t that mean something? - Spursian Dynasty (Substack)
I’m glad you brought this up because Keldon Johnson has easily been one of the most challenging players to evaluate on this roster. You are 100% correct that he has shown tangible improvement as a scorer and facilitator this season. The fifth-year forward is on a heater, averaging 18.6 points, 6.8 boards, and 3.9 assists on .520/.433/.778 shooting splits over his last 10 games.
However, San Antonio is also 0-10 over that span, and that makes it difficult to shower anyone with much praise for their contributions to a franchise-worst losing streak. He is neither the driving force of the offense nor the sole reason for all the losses, placing Keldon in a precarious position. With that said, he deserves credit for acclimating to a new role with minimal hiccups and zero complaints.
Johnson has increased his efficiency as a human bowling ball, finishing a career-high 70.9% of his shots in the restricted area. And after abandoning the midrange last year, he has made noticeable strides in that department, draining a respectable 47.1% of his 17 attempts from that zone. Additionally, Keldon has demonstrated improved patience and an impressive change of pace on his dribble drives.
There is a post in the works about how he has developed as a connective playmaker, so we won’t get too deep into that this go-round for the sake of not spoiling that analysis. For now, all you need to know is Keldon has started removing the blinders that made a handful of his forays to the rim one-dimensional, reckless, and predictable. Though he still slips up on occasion, his eyes are open to connecting with teammates.
Does this production mean anything? Sure, his development is a promising sign of the adaptability the Spurs will need from the players who stick around for the long haul of their rebuild. We should give credit where it is due. Nonetheless, Keldon has been just as much of an issue on the defensive end as he was last season. Basketball is, was, and always will be a two-way sport, but we can save that chat for another time.
4. How has your opinion of Sochan's potential changed this season? In particular, his defensive potential. Conventional and advanced stats don't support the argument that he is a positive defender. -ScroogeMcD (Substack)
San Antonio is on pace to have the sixth-worst Defensive Rating (119.5) the league has ever seen, yet that is somehow an improvement from the all-time mark they registered a year ago. Those numbers should give you a good idea of how disjointed this ball club has been on that side of the hardwood. As much as fans might want to point fingers at Zach Collins or Keldon, there is no avoiding that Sochan has a hand in this mess.
Sochan flashed enticing defensive potential as a rookie, making statements against an array of respected scorers like LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard, and Karl-Anthony Towns. He looked the part of a blooming instigator and enforcer, poking and prodding opponents until they lost their cool. Skip ahead to right now, and the second-year forward has taken a disheartening step backward as a stopper.
This might be tough to swallow, but Sochan has a -1.6 Defensive Box Plus-Minus that ranks 180th out of 196 qualified players in the league. Despite an increase in minutes, his steals and blocks are down, and his foul rate is up. He has been a net negative for a lottery-bound franchise, and those signature moments of lockdown defense have been few and far between. But there must be a cause for his precipitous decline, right?
Sifting through the advanced metrics on BBall Index paints a pristine portrait of what this team has asked of Sochan as a defender. He is third in Matchup Difficulty, 11th in Defensive Positional Versatility, and 43rd in Defensive Miles per 75 possessions in the NBA. Not only has he defended nearly every position on the court, but he spends most of time covering superstars. Did we mention he is learning how to be a point guard?
The Spurs have overextended Sochan, but their floor general experiment with him has reached the end of the road. Without primary ball-handling responsibilities, he should have a chance to return to form as an off-ball menace and defensive specialist. Though the team defense might continue stumbling, there will be no excuses if Sochan fails to get a better handle on his man-to-man assignments.
5. Have you seen film on Nikola Topic already? Would be my favorite draft addition by far. - Tobias Bühner (Substack)
Landing Wembanyama was supposed to usher in a brand-new era of Spurs hoops. But adding one player to the mix was never the answer to thrusting San Antonio back into championship contention. Popovich and Brian Wright warned us this would probably be a multi-year process, and the front office brain trust has numerous glaring holes to address as they construct a stable foundation that can support a durable dynasty.
With the audacious Sochan project in the rearview mirror, the Silver and Black should start a legitimate search for their long-term point guard. While Jones is a phenomenal backup and serviceable spot starter, the franchise has provided less than discreet hints that the former Duke standout is not the facilitator to fill their vacancy. It might feel a little early to talk draft, but that 3-18 record suggests otherwise.
San Antonio looks like a prime candidate to compete for the number one overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, and though experts are lower on this class, there are a handful of talented guards. Isaiah Collier, Rob Dillingham, or Stephon Castle could fit the bill for the Spurs, but Tobias mentioned Nikola Topic, and he might be the best option on the board once everything is all said and done.
Topic measures 6-foot-6 and 200 pounds with a reported seven-foot wingspan, and he has averaged 18.7 points and 6.3 assists per game on 51.2% shooting from the field for Mega Basket this season. At 18-years-old, he is the youngest player on their roster, an element that stands out when you consider professional teams in Europe seldom give the keys of their offense to inexperienced prospects, let alone teenagers.
The Serbian playmaker utilizes his quick first step, sturdy frame, and grasp of angles and pace to get downhill and finish at the rim. Because he can collapse defenses with his dribble penetration, Topic is just as dangerous as a distributor. His blend of court vision and length allows him to deliver pinpoint passes from unique angles, and he is adept at hitting bigs in the pick-and-roll, a necessary trait for any Wemby sidekick.
Every youngster has flaws, so where can he stand to improve? Topic is a 29.3% three-point shooter and an undisciplined defender who routinely struggles to fight through screens. That amalgamation of characteristics could be problematic for a young team that is short on spacing and defense. With that in mind, his touch on pull-up jumpers, free throws, and floaters are positive signs that he could erase the shooting concerns.