Vic-and-Roll Mailbag: The Branham Hot Streak, Making Room for Barlow, and Thoughts on Rob Dillingham
The Spurs are finding answers as the maiden voyage of the Victor Wembanyama era winds down.
Welcome to another edition of our weekly mailbag! Our readers submitted their Spurs questions on Substack over the weekend, and we selected our favorites and cobbled up some answers to those intriguing queries!
Thank you so much for supporting our publication! Sound off in the comment section with your hot takes and opinions, and let us know what other topics are on your mind as we approach the last leg of the season!
1.) Is Keldon’s new bench role a sure-fire sign the Spurs will fill the starting small forward position via the draft, free agency, or a trade? -
Gregg Popovich demoted Keldon Johnson to the bench on December 23rd, and the 24-year-old has averaged 15.1 points, 4.7 boards, and 2.1 assists per game on .437/.340/.806 shooting splits as the sixth man of this young ball club. While you could interpret that sudden alteration as an attempt to fortify the second unit with an injection of scoring, his former starting position looks like it will be up for grabs this offseason.
We will discuss Julian Champagnie in more depth in a minute. But he is likely nothing more than a placeholder for the Spurs until they can replace him with another forward that offers more versatility on offense. Johnson fits the bill as a slasher who spaces the floor and supplies complementary playmaking, but advanced metrics like D-LEBRON (-1.4) and DEPM (-1.2) rank him as one of the worst defenders in the NBA.
Not only does San Antonio need to find someone who defends better than Keldon, but they must add a wing that provides more complementary scoring than Champagnie, a tall task that will require a careful search in free agency, diligent scouting in the draft, and a proactive approach on the trade market. With that said, shaking hands on a deal to land such a player is the most complicated route and least probable scenario.
Luring free agents to the 2-1-0 could also be challenging at this phase of their rebuild. But the Silver and Black will have a chance to select at least one of Ron Holland, Cody Williams, Zaccharie Risacher, and Matas Buzelis in the 2024 NBA Draft if the Toronto pick falls outside of the top six this summer. Each of those talented teenagers could be the long-term answer at the three next to Devin Vassell and Victor Wembanyama.
2.) How would you assess Julian Champagnie's performance this season? And what are his chances of becoming a rotation-level player? - @ScroogeMcD
How about we backtrack to Champagnie? Despite becoming an everyday starter at the expense of Keldon, the second-year forward has maintained this role because of his fit as a low-usage sharpshooter with respectable defensive chops. However, he has been a disappointment in the three-point department. Despite draining 37.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc, his streakiness has occasionally rendered him virtually useless.
The 22-year-old has shot below 33.3% from three in 29 games this season, and since he fails to bring much else to the table, his minutes can often seem like cardio when treys aren’t falling through the net. Champagnie lacks the burst to separate on straight-line drives to capitalize on closeouts. He also ranks in the 21st percentile on cuts and 38th percentile in transition, mainly due to his limited explosion without a runway.
As for the opposite end of the floor, Champagnie has been a solid presence. The Silver and Black have asked him to defend everyone from Zion Williams and Klay Thompson to Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Williams. His track record as a man-to-man stopper is adequate, though he has been at his best as a helper who dislodges balls on digs and erases layups with weakside rotations. He may be the best wing defender on the roster.
So, where does that leave Champagnie as San Antonio plans for the future? Losing his starter status doesn’t mean the Spurs should move on from him, especially if he begins hitting the three-ball at a more consistent clip. The former undrafted standout has the tools and skills to become a rotational piece, and if you squint your eyes, you can see a high-end outcome where he resembles something close to a young Danny Green.
3.) How will the Spurs incorporate Dominick Barlow into their rotation for the rest of the season? -
Before exploring how San Antonio will incorporate Dominick Barlow over the last leg of the season, we should take a moment to acknowledge how far he has come since he stepped through the proverbial doors of this storied organization. The 20-year-old has transformed himself from an undrafted player on a two-way contract into a promising and impactful contributor knocking on the door of breaking into the nightly rotation.
Dominick split time between the Austin Spurs and the big league club after injuries to Zach Collins, Charles Bassey, and Victor Wembanyama forced Coach Popovich to toss him into the action. But it was obvious that he had outgrown the G League well before the calendar flipped to the New Year, as he averaged an astounding 25.2 points and 7.8 rebounds on 57.1% shooting through his first 12 games in the state capital.
That dominant production with their affiliate franchise, plus an encouraging string of eye-opening contests for a shorthanded San Antonio squad, convinced the front office to sign him to a standard deal worth $455,620 in guaranteed money that will make him a restricted free agent this offseason. Though that move may seem inconsequential for both parties, it shows this team has genuine confidence in his long-term outlook.
The Spurs rewarded Barlow for his remarkable development, but fans shouldn’t expect him to see much run unless Wemby or Collins are unavailable. The former wants to be on the court as much as possible before the season ends, and San Antonio has to leave Collins in the picture or risk seeing his value plummet at the start of the two-year, $35 million extension he inked last summer. Sorry for being the bearer of bad news.
4.) What are your thoughts on Rob Dillingham? And would you take him with a top five pick? -
Securing a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama was only the first piece of the puzzle for San Antonio. And after 65 games, finding a point guard to feed him the ball seems like the next logical step in this rebuild. Thanks to their 14-51 record, the Spurs are positioned to take home one of the first picks in the 2024 NBA Draft, a luxury that could drop the coveted commodity of a high-end playmaker right into their laps.
We will have a full-length scouting report on Rob Dillingham on The Vic-and-Roll for our readers next week, but here are his measurements and some first impressions. The 19-year-old is 6-foot-3 and 176 pounds and has averaged 15.0 points and 3.8 assists per game while slashing .482/.445/.778 from the field this season. The freshman is also one-half of the electrifying second-string tandem for Kentucky alongside Reed Sheppard.
Dillingham has a scorching first step, magnificent shiftiness with the basketball in his hands, a lightning-quick trigger, deep range, and soft touch that make him an enticing three-level scorer in a class with a notable shortage of high-ceiling prospects. He is an unselfish passer who can hit the roll man from several angles, deliver dump offs in the dunker spot, and fire live-dribble skip passes to open sharpshooters.
Nevertheless, the teenage playmaker has a handful of glaring holes in his game. Rob is liable to get hot and cold in an instant, struggles to finish at the hoop against size, and has trouble rounding the corner on drives against physical defenders. Defense is also a monumental question mark for the diminutive facilitator. But Victor would afford him more wiggle room for error than most as a once-in-a-lifetime rim protector.
Some evaluators had questions about his ability to acclimate to the tight structure of a blue blood program under Head Coach John Calipari after spending the previous year chucking shots with unmitigated freedom with Overtime Elite. But Dillingham put all those doubts to rest, willingly splitting touches with Antonio Reaves, D.J. Wagner, Tre Mitchell, and Reed Sheppard. We have faith that he can buy into the Popovich system.
All this takes us back to the second part of this question. Would you select Dillingham with a top-five pick in the 2024 NBA Draft? With Alexandre Sarr, Cody Williams, Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis, and Zaccharie Risacher firmly ahead of Rob on my Big Board, the answer is no. However, if the slippery floor general was available and San Antonio landed a second lottery ticket courtesy of the Raptors, passing on him would be tough.
5.) What do you make of Malaki Branham's recent hot streak? -
Malaki Branham has dragged Spurs fans on a nauseating roller-coaster ride during his second go-round with the franchise. You could make a legitimate case that the 6-foot-4 swingman looked like the worst player in the league over the first four months of the regular-season schedule. He was erratic from the field, and his horrific defense landed him in the Popovich doghouse for a little over one week near the end of January.
Thankfully, the 20-year-old has started turning a corner since recording a season-high 19 points in Dallas right before the All-Star Break. Branham had his first dud in a long time on Monday night, but he was averaging 15.4 points on unbelievable .509/.565/.947 shooting splits in his last ten appearances dating back to his breakthrough against the Mavericks. Here's to hoping the former first-rounder can keep building momentum.
Blistering three-point shooting is the driving force behind his late-season turnaround, a welcome sign after he failed to make much noise as a spot-up threat earlier this year. Though the ball still has a relatively flat trajectory out of his hands, Makaki has added a bit more arc from distance, seemingly making a massive difference. That confidence has translated into better decision-making and more aggression hunting for offense.
Posterizing LeBron James and dancing on Domantas Sabonis for a step-back three are excellent clips to add to your career highlight reel, but Branham has yet to show much resistance as a man-to-man defender. Even amid his recent hot streak, opponents have shot 53.3% against him. Unless he makes significant improvements, his offense will be hard-pressed to make up for his defensive shortcomings when he inevitably cools off.
Appreciate the short rundown on Dillingham but would you take him top five? I think that much is unclear to me. Would hesitate to take a smaller guard that doesn’t finish well and is a defensive liability that early. Respect and trust your opinion of him but really want to know the answer to the second part of my question. Thanks Noah.
I am not high on Dillingham. What's the last small and skinny guard who isn't finishing good on a lower level that really got to be a starter in the NBA. Reminds me way to much of Sharife Cooper (whom i liked, but had zero shot of making it in the NBA) with a better jumpshot 🙈